Stock Market Analysis -05-01-2012
Originally it looked like we may hit a correction, but now it looks like we might just have some consolidation. Flat bases are always good for long term investors since you get the benefits of forming a base without the temporary scare of a correction. There are a lot of stocks hitting buy points right now, and while the market looks like it’s in a decent place to buy, I’m still a bit cautious and keeping shorter leashes than normal. I need to refresh the watch list on the blog, since I’m actually holding a lot of different things off the autotrader that I haven’t logged here…
Stock Market Analysis – 04-13-2012
After the first real correction in a long time, we finally had a bounce, followed by another reversal back to the downside. Falling through here could get interesting, since there are only a few minor points of support all the way down to $1200. Without all the breakeven sellers and missed the first boat buyers, the first long term level of support seems like the technical position traders acting on the 200 day moving average. We’ll see if we get that follow through this week.
Stock Market Analysis – 04-11-2012
After weeks of running up, this is the first prolonged period we’ve had a slide. I see two interesting lines that converge at $1350 right now. The previous highs from 2011 and the bottom of the current longer term uptrend channel. Falling through could signal a rough summer ahead, a la 2011, but since this is an election year I’m guessing there’s a lot more news ahead that will swing this thing. Time to go back to tighten up those stops…
Stock Market Analysis – 03-15-2012
There wasn’t much going on when I last checked in, but since then the market has been pretty interesting. Pushing above all time highs, the new breakout shows that the recent run still has some legs. We haven’t had a real correction since last fall at $1150, so I’m reluctant to bet that this can continue.
I’m currently taking a non aggressive approach, which differs for me from being conservative because I’m still holding trades from my autotrader overnight. I keep looking for an excuse to go to cash, but as long as the run keeps going you kind of have to ride it. Having said that, I’m not even scoping out any overnight short potentials right now. Any dips will be seen as opportunities to buy, unless we burn off about 15%, and by that point any short screens I run today will be invalid. Let’s see what bullish things are out there…
Stock Market Analysis – 02-17-2012
It’s been a while since my last post, but the chart hasn’t really changed. We’re still on the same uptrend, we haven’t broken out yet, and we haven’t had any real pullbacks. Oil seems to be coming to the forefront again, and Greece is still a big issue, so we’ll see where things go. I’m expecting at least a short term pullback from $1350 regardless of where the long term trend is going, so if you’re in it for the long run make sure you don’t get shaken out too early, and if you’re looking at the short term look for some possible action soon…
Stock Market Analysis – 01-24-2012
Although it’s been a while since my last post, the market has been chugging along without me. I’ve been sitting on a lot of positions for an extended period, but it looks like I may need to start making some adjustments to my current holdings — yeah, I’m looking at you MCD. Earnings have generally been good so far, but I’m really interested in AMZN later on this week. I’ll go through my watchlist to quantify some of my changes in the near future, but the market is overbought now anyway, so most plays are going to be waiting on pullbacks. As bad as the global economy still looks, I wouldn’t go against the current uptrend anytime soon.