lamdar

HealthSprint (HS) – 08-27-2010

lamdar — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 15:15:00 +0000

I’m not bullish now, but I’m already in all the bearish positions I can handle. Solid numbers on an industry leader are always good. I can’t say I know what the merger with Bravo Health means for HS, but I do see a breakout occurring on the news. $20 seems to be a long term sticking point for this stock, so I’m willing to give this guy a shot if the market does actually turn up.

Stock Market Analysis – 08-27-2010

lamdar — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 07:45:53 +0000

Today was another volatile day in the market, but when all is said and done, we’re still at the same place we started the week at. The dragonfly doji on the weekly charts would be bullish, but since we just had alternating up and down days I’m not sold. We’re sitting at the top of short term resistance, so unless we break that, I’m still wholeheartedly bearish.

The fed is acknowledging the fragility of the economy, but there appears to be some infighting about whether to stimulate the economy before a new downturn is confirmed. While acknowledgement is the first step to avoiding a plunge back down the $700, continuing this downtrend is still likely in the immediate future. Having said that, $1040 has held up a couple times now, so I’m setting some bullish orders and tightening up my stops on the bearish positions. The summer doldrums are ending soon, so I don’t want to get left behind whichever direction the market chooses to go.

Stock Market Analysis – 08-20-2010

lamdar — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 06:51:37 +0000

After a brief bounce, the market appeared to be heading back south only to have a bullish reversal on Friday after lunch. That leaves us squarely in the middle of no man’s land again, and still waiting for something to force action. Consolidation periods aren’t bad if you have your stops wide enough, so hang tight on your current positions and wait for signals on new ones.

Stock Market Analysis – 08-16-2010

lamdar — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 05:58:48 +0000

A wishy washy day with weak volume doesn’t say much besides hinting at the bears running out of steam. We’re still around the midway point though, so I wouldn’t open too many new positions. Time to sit around and keep waiting…

Stock Market Analysis – 08-11-2010

lamdar — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 04:30:36 +0000

The market had been opening low and closing high on declining volume lately, but finally ran out of steam. With the action picking up again, the market opened down and kept going. That puts us between the same watch levels of $1040 and $1140 that we’ve had over the past couple months.

If you’re in bullish positions, this drop probably didn’t stop you out yet, but you’re probably pretty close. Hang tight on your bearish positions since it’ll probably be a choppy ride down if we do fall back through $1040. As always, make sure you have some predefined exit points and don’t feel bad if you fall for some head fakes. Managing risk in these periods is more important than making big money, but of course letting your winners ride is important on your correct guesses.

Stock Market Analysis – 08-06-2010

lamdar — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 06:42:58 +0000

The market started weak, but coincidentally bounced back right off the uptrend line. I still don’t want to say I’m bullish, but the bears failed to capitalize on another chance. The range keeps narrowing and should be broken one way or another this week. It should have a nice tight natural stop, so get ready to make a play.

Stock Market Analysis – 08-05-2010

lamdar — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 04:14:26 +0000

Some resistance in this area was completely expected. If this ends up being just a hesitation or a brick wall remains to be determined though. Watch that line closely…

Stock Market Analysis – 08-03-2010

lamdar — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 07:31:24 +0000

As doubtful as I am, we’re still in a definite uptrend. Despite the bad economic news, stocks like PCLN continue to top expectations. I wouldn’t go heavily long right now, but the weakness from the bears in seizing negative opportunities makes me doubtful that we’ll see any significant drops in the near future. The only good signs for bears that I see is the declining volume through the uptrend. Maybe we’ll see some selling off, but I’d probably keep a fairly short leash and take early profits on down turns now.

Stock Market Analysis – 07-26-2010

lamdar — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 04:51:30 +0000

I’m a bit surprised at the strength in the market today given the mixed news of strong earnings but weak fundamentals. We’re in a definite uptrend, but with declining volume I wouldn’t get too aggressive on the bullish side yet.

I’m always proud of myself when I can spot the spin in statistics before it’s pointed out to me, but today’s housing numbers were a little too obvious. I can play this game too. For instance, did you know that from the 1999-2000 to 2000-2001 season the Clippers had 106% more wins while the Lakers went down 16%? Of course the clippers went from 15 wins to 31 wins (still not making the playoffs) while the Lakers went from 67 to 56 wins while winning the championship both years?

The most obvious signal in today’s new home sales numbers was the fact that they were touting the June numbers against the May numbers, which if you recall were record lows, especially after being revised downwards. Looking at the chart from Calculated Risk below, it’s a little more clear. Basically May equals the Clippers in 2000 and June is them in 2001. Not much to write home about.

Stock Market Analysis – 07-19-2010

lamdar — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 06:18:40 +0000

I hate when I’m right, but not playing market. At least I can look back through the blog at all the times I’ve been wrong over the past few years to bring me back to reality. The market is still volatile, but in a definite downward trend still. Watch for the line at $1100 as the level to signal distribution, otherwise it’s all bearish trades.