Stock Market Analysis – 08-05-2010
Some resistance in this area was completely expected. If this ends up being just a hesitation or a brick wall remains to be determined though. Watch that line closely…
Stock Market Analysis – 08-03-2010
As doubtful as I am, we’re still in a definite uptrend. Despite the bad economic news, stocks like PCLN continue to top expectations. I wouldn’t go heavily long right now, but the weakness from the bears in seizing negative opportunities makes me doubtful that we’ll see any significant drops in the near future. The only good signs for bears that I see is the declining volume through the uptrend. Maybe we’ll see some selling off, but I’d probably keep a fairly short leash and take early profits on down turns now.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-26-2010
I’m a bit surprised at the strength in the market today given the mixed news of strong earnings but weak fundamentals. We’re in a definite uptrend, but with declining volume I wouldn’t get too aggressive on the bullish side yet.
I’m always proud of myself when I can spot the spin in statistics before it’s pointed out to me, but today’s housing numbers were a little too obvious. I can play this game too. For instance, did you know that from the 1999-2000 to 2000-2001 season the Clippers had 106% more wins while the Lakers went down 16%? Of course the clippers went from 15 wins to 31 wins (still not making the playoffs) while the Lakers went from 67 to 56 wins while winning the championship both years?
The most obvious signal in today’s new home sales numbers was the fact that they were touting the June numbers against the May numbers, which if you recall were record lows, especially after being revised downwards. Looking at the chart from Calculated Risk below, it’s a little more clear. Basically May equals the Clippers in 2000 and June is them in 2001. Not much to write home about.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-19-2010
I hate when I’m right, but not playing market. At least I can look back through the blog at all the times I’ve been wrong over the past few years to bring me back to reality. The market is still volatile, but in a definite downward trend still. Watch for the line at $1100 as the level to signal distribution, otherwise it’s all bearish trades.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-13-2010
When does a bounce become a reversal? After you break the previous high. The last downward move was so sharp that despite the run up, we haven’t gotten over the previous mark set at $1130 yet. If you played the bounce and are long on things like BP now, you may want to take some profits or start setting trailing stops. I still like the bearish setups that are presenting themselves now, so keep screening for them. And if you’re on the sidelines, keep an eye on your favorite bullish candidates in case there’s a full rebound confirmation.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-07-2010
The strong market bounce should add some hesitation in opening new short positions, but shouldn’t be forcing an automatic sell. Holiday weeks make it tough to read volume, so take the action with a grain of salt. Most of the good shorts are either still below their breakdown points, e.g. MGM, or still priming for a breakdown, e.g. LULU. That makes this a perfect spot to be with the jobless claims report coming out.