Stock Market Analysis – 12-31-2008
What a historical year 2008 turned out to be. With nearly a 50% drop from the year’s high to the low, we experienced volatility not seen for over 20 years. With a new president coming in and a single party controlling the government, there will be a lot of changes in the near future. Whether it’s for better or worse will be determined though. Once the volume picks back up after the holidays, look to see if the volatility spikes back up or if the market stays in consolidation mode.
My top thing to watch for 2009 is probably oil right now. The bubble will finish deflating, and at some point OPEC will find the correct supply balance for the shrinking markets. Since oil is less correlated to the general market than other equities, even if the market fails to turn around in 2009 I think it still has some potential to be a good bullish play. If the market does turn around, then all the other usual suspects are in play – AAPL, AMZN, GS, MOS, and whatever else shows up under my bullish stocks.
Stock Market Analysis – 10-23-2008
The volatility continues to amaze as a late run turned a huge negative day into a positive. One stock that impressed me today was AMZN. After an after hours earnings call yesterday that gave great earnings but a weak outlook, AMZN plunged and opened down over 13%. Aided by the late surge, AMZN ended up closing slightly positive today. Is there that much support here at $50 for them? It will be interesting to see how the holiday sales go this year.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-23-2008
The market never ceases to amaze me. After a volatile morning, things were pretty uneventful later in the day. Oil continues to drop, but it’s still in the healthy correction stage and shouldn’t be cause for the oil bears to celebrate yet. To me, the most interesting news came after the market close, when AMZN reported a knockout quarter despite the conditions in the economy. I’m a bit surprised that their retail business is still so strong, with their web services only accounting for 3 percent of revenue. Along with a supposedly much better Kindle in the works and more people shopping online to save gas money, there’s still some room for growth. Not that I would go long on growth stocks right now, but it’s always good to keep these things in mind.
Stock Market Analysis – 07-22-2008
The market was surprisingly strong today. After opening down, it managed to bounce back despite a lack of great news. AAPL managed to claw it’s way back to end just a couple percent down, showing surprising strength much to my chagrin. I guess it’s good that it’s not hitting a buy point yet, since the market isn’t really in any condition to establish new longs anyway. Next up on the earnings parade, AMZN, reporting tomorrow after the market close.