Stock Market Analysis–01-26-2011
Every time you think the market’s going to drop, it finds new strength. While not quite continuing the uptrend yet, it’s drifting away from the bottom of the price channel. The decreasing volume says this could just be an upwards correction, but it’s interesting nonetheless. Some of the leaders that I’ve been hoping for a new entry point on, like F or AAPL, haven’t come down out of the clouds at all. Fortunately, AMZN is experiencing some profit taking before their earnings call though. I’ll be watching that one closely…
Ford Motor Co (F) – 01-05-2010
I’ve mentioned that I like Ford before, but I’ve never made a post dedicated to it. The first thing you learn about stocks is to look at the companies that make things you know about. That way it’s easier to gauge the hype around products, and hopefully the sales and earnings will follow. Anyone that follows cars has seen that Ford has been getting a lot of hype over the Fusion and the new Taurus. Over the past decade, I’ve only considered purchasing Japanese or German cars myself, but this is the first year I would actually be interested in at least checking out a Ford if I were to buy a new car.
What does this actually mean for the stock? You can look at the sales charts and see that Ford has been on the rise over the past year on the backs of the aforementioned models. You can also see the double bottom and uptrending chart, along with the fresh breakout on the news of another good sales month. Regardless of your timeframe, this is definitely a stock to keep an eye on. It’s just a matter of deciding how short of a base you’re willing to trade off and how long of a positive earnings history you require.
Stock Market Analysis – 12-31-2009
Hopefully everyone had a good Christmas and New Years. After a month long flat base, the market looked ready to continue its uptrend. It’s tough to rely on holiday action though, so I’ll give it a couple days before I open any new trades.
Consistent readers should know that I’m big on historical analysis – that’s the whole point of this blog – so whether you check on a weekly, monthly, or yearly basis, this is probably a good time to check your own holdings too. As for the general market, I love going to the bigcharts performance tables to see what’s hot (although you can get this info almost anywhere). It looks like the top industries from 2009 were Travel & Tourism, Automobiles, Computer Hardware, and obviously commodities.
Automobiles being on top through 2009 may be surprising at first, but if you’ll recall, all of the American auto industry bailout issues were culminating at the end of 2008. Hitting the low point of oversoldness right at the beginning of 2009, coupled with the rebound in consumer spending (and things like cash for clunkers that directed it at automobiles) made for the perfect storm. For the record, I still like Ford, but I would like to see more evidence that they can keep making money before jumping in.
What should we expect for 2010? I don’t make predictions, but I still like commodities as long as we keep printing money like there’s no tomorrow. You also know that stocks in the financial sector will eventually bounce back, but guessing when that will happen is a shot in the dark. Homebuilders are also certain to come back, but I guess that’s why you make watch lists and trade what you see, not what you predict…