Stock Market Analysis – 03-30-2010
The market was interesting today, showing some weakness despite good housing and consumer confidence news. That’s a signal that the bull run may be slowing down. The thing I’m looking at is the earnings for CAGC tomorrow before the market open. They’ve been a top IBD stock for a little bit, so a big miss could be a bearish opportunity. But if they beat, I’m interested to see how strong the breakout runs. A strong breakout with no follow through is another sign of weakness, while a strong follow through means the growth investors are still out to play. Keep an eye on related stocks like MOS and POT too.
Stock Market Analysis – 04-06-2009
A narrow trading range and miniscule volume made for a rather dull day today. AA, BBBY, and MOS release their earnings tomorrow, so hopefully we’ll start seeing some earnings excitement for the quarter.
Stock Market Analysis – 12-31-2008
What a historical year 2008 turned out to be. With nearly a 50% drop from the year’s high to the low, we experienced volatility not seen for over 20 years. With a new president coming in and a single party controlling the government, there will be a lot of changes in the near future. Whether it’s for better or worse will be determined though. Once the volume picks back up after the holidays, look to see if the volatility spikes back up or if the market stays in consolidation mode.
My top thing to watch for 2009 is probably oil right now. The bubble will finish deflating, and at some point OPEC will find the correct supply balance for the shrinking markets. Since oil is less correlated to the general market than other equities, even if the market fails to turn around in 2009 I think it still has some potential to be a good bullish play. If the market does turn around, then all the other usual suspects are in play – AAPL, AMZN, GS, MOS, and whatever else shows up under my bullish stocks.
Mosaic (MOS) – 10-17-2008
This is another one where I’m looking at a group of stocks and not just MOS. Include AGU, POT, TRA, and any of the other hot agricultural stocks from the past year here too. After starting out good in 2006, then bumping up the slope in 2007, and then just exploding into 2008, these stocks have all gotten beaten back down to the ground over the past month. Maybe the drop will continue and you’ll be able to get in to this one at 20 again. Or maybe it’s already too cheap so it will consolidate here. Either way, this is definitely a sector to watch closely over the next year.