Stock Market Analysis – 10-08-2008
Another wild day of ups and downs that ended in the red again. The fed tried as hard as it could by giving an out of cycle half point rate cut down to 1.5 percent, but the weakness in the market was too much to overcome. The new rate cut gave gold another boost, and expect further cuts to push it even higher. Some solar stocks bounced back strongly today too, like LDK, SOL, and CSIQ. Also in the news, IBM expects their third quarter earnings to come in above expectations.
As mentioned before, solar and tech are two of my favorite candidates for leading the rebound whenever it comes, so it may be worthwhile to keep an eye on the Nasdaq too. Divergences from the other indices can be an early sign that the tech heavy Nasdaq stocks are starting to ease up a little and may be getting too cheap to ignore. Longs should stay on the sidelines for now, but pay especially close attention to this round of earnings to gauge how the market reacts to the results. If we get to the point where companies miss or simply meet expectations but the stocks still go up, we’re probably getting close to at least a local bottom and if you have any aggressive bearish positions you should probably think about taking some profits.
Suntech Power (STP) 10-06-2008
STP is a decent one, but I really just mean to look at all solar stocks, e.g. FSLR, SOL, etc. These guys were super hot last year and most have burned off well over 50% from their peak so far. Alternative energy is still a sector with a bright future though, so look for these guys to jump back to the forefront when the market gets strong again. For STP, look at how well it can hold its previous support of $30 or if it goes back down to its lower level in the low $20s. The results of the presidential election may also influence this sector since the energy policy of the future administration could greatly hinder or aid the development of specific types of energy.